According to a survey released Monday by USA Today, economists see a 30 percent chance that the US will suffer another recession.
The newspaper’s latest quarterly survey results of 39 prominent economists, carried out Aug 3-11, showed that they believe that the chance of a new recession in the US had doubled in the last three months.
From in.finance.yahoo.com:
Given that forecast, another economic blow, such as further downward moves in the stock markets or the worsening of the European debt crisis, could push the US economy ‘over the edge’.
Even if the US manages to avert another recession, economists say that economic growth will remain about 2.5 percent next year. In the April survey, they had forecast economic growth of 3.1 percent.
The US needs economic growth of above 3 percent to be able to substantially reduce the unemployment rate, which currently stands at 9.1 percent.
In the face of that projected weak growth, the 39 economists surveyed also said that the unemployment rate will slowly decline to 8.8 percent next year.
The pessimism of economists reflects in part the concerns over European debt crisis, poor economic growth, and recent downgrade of the US sovereign debt rating by Standard & Poor’s.
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Okay I’m conivcend. Let’s put it to action.